What we thought we knew: 2016 voter turnout expectations and reality, by Karlyn Bowman, Eleanor O'Neil

"The US electorate is becoming more diverse and groups such as Hispanics and Asians will exert greater electoral clout over time. But a new report from the Census on voting in 2016 shows that the transformation of the electoral landscape won’t happen overnight. This is one of the many interesting stories from the Census’s report.
The Census has collected voting and registration data since 1964 through a biennial supplement to the Current Population Survey. Starting in 1978, the bureau began to include citizenship data, adding more clarity to the picture. The Census’s latest report on voting and registration in 2016, based on a survey taken after the election, is the most comprehensive source of data on 2016 voting for the population of all age-eligible citizens and for many key subgroups. It also gives us important information about what some analysts got right and wrong in their election models or predictions.
Let’s look at some specifics, starting with the demographic composition of the electorate...."

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