A budget-neutral universal basic income, by Will Ensor, Anderson Frailey, Matt Jensen, Amy Xu

"This report is the first in a series of papers that will analyze the economic impact of Universal Basic Income (UBI) proposals. In this report, we simulate a three-part policy reform: (1) repeal most welfare and transfer programs, including Social Security and Medicare (2) repeal most base-narrowing features of the individual income tax system, and (3) replace those programs with a UBI on a budget-neutral basis.

We calculate the value of the UBI and report how the reform affects taxpayers by income group and age. We also draw from the welfare literature to show that a noncash benefit costing the government a dollar might not be worth a dollar to the recipient.

This is the first analysis to combine three essential open source models. We use Tax Calculator and Tax Data to estimate the consequences of the tax provisions, and we use the new Current Population Survey (CPS) Transfer Augmentation Model (C-TAM) to estimate the consequences of repealing welfare and transfer programs...

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